Date of Graduation

Spring 5-15-2020

Document Type

Restricted Thesis - USF access only

Degree Name

Master of Science in International and Development Economics (MSIDEC)


College of Arts and Sciences



First Advisor

Libo Xu

Second Advisor

Jesse Anttila-hughes


Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Inflation: The Case of BRICS Countries

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on inflation rates in BRICS countries using annual panel data for 20 years from 1997 to 2017. The study is based on a two-process analysis where the Structural VAR model is used in the first stage to decompose the oil price shocks. In the second stage, Dynamic Panel Model based on Arellano-Bond Estimator is applied to further examine how these oil price shocks affect inflation, controlling for total factor productivity, interest rates and gross domestic product growth. The results suggest that oil price changes do not have significant impact on inflation at low frequency data.

However, individual country comparison reveals that oil supply and oil specific demand shocks have significant positive impact on Russia but not in any other of the remaining four countries- Brazil, China, India, and South Africa

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