Title of Research Project
Modeling population responses of California serpentine flora in the face of climate change
Major
Biology
Research Abstract
Rare and endemic taxa are crucial to sustaining local biodiversity, but as climate change becomes more apparent, understanding how these key species will respond becomes increasingly important. In California, 14.7% of rare and endemic flora inhabit serpentine outcrops. Serpentine soils are known for being toxic to most plant species, as many of them contain high levels of heavy metals, high Mg:Ca concentration ratios, and greater temperature variation due to a lack of organic matter. In the context of climate change, one can hypothesize that species with an affinity to serpentine will be more able to handle increasingly extreme temperature variation than their non-serpentine relatives. However, serpentine outcrops have an island-like distribution, meaning that dispersal ranges and habitat suitability is limited for serpentine endemics. I used Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to project how serpentine endemic, serpentine tolerator, and sister non-serpentine taxa will respond to climate change. Species occurrence data from the Calflora and California Consortium of Herbaria databases were collected for 25-30 serpentine endemics, tolerators, and sister non-serpentine species. Climatic and edaphic data were obtained from the California Basin Characterization Model and the USGS respectively. ENMs were created using Maxent software for current (2010 - 2039) and future (2070 - 2099) periods. Preliminary data shows that serpentine tolerators are most suited to climate change, since they are able to occupy serpentine and non-serpentine soils. Non-serpentine species had a projected reduction of their available range, but were still able to withstand the effects of climate change into the 2070 - 2099 period, while serpentine endemics saw a slight increase in their projected range. The implications of this research can be used to inform the conservation of rare and endemic species as climate change continues to threaten biota in California.
Faculty Mentor/Advisor
John R. Paul
mp3
AlexandraPalacios_CASerpentineFlora_biology_poster.pptx (14308 kB)
powerpoint
Modeling population responses of California serpentine flora in the face of climate change
Rare and endemic taxa are crucial to sustaining local biodiversity, but as climate change becomes more apparent, understanding how these key species will respond becomes increasingly important. In California, 14.7% of rare and endemic flora inhabit serpentine outcrops. Serpentine soils are known for being toxic to most plant species, as many of them contain high levels of heavy metals, high Mg:Ca concentration ratios, and greater temperature variation due to a lack of organic matter. In the context of climate change, one can hypothesize that species with an affinity to serpentine will be more able to handle increasingly extreme temperature variation than their non-serpentine relatives. However, serpentine outcrops have an island-like distribution, meaning that dispersal ranges and habitat suitability is limited for serpentine endemics. I used Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) to project how serpentine endemic, serpentine tolerator, and sister non-serpentine taxa will respond to climate change. Species occurrence data from the Calflora and California Consortium of Herbaria databases were collected for 25-30 serpentine endemics, tolerators, and sister non-serpentine species. Climatic and edaphic data were obtained from the California Basin Characterization Model and the USGS respectively. ENMs were created using Maxent software for current (2010 - 2039) and future (2070 - 2099) periods. Preliminary data shows that serpentine tolerators are most suited to climate change, since they are able to occupy serpentine and non-serpentine soils. Non-serpentine species had a projected reduction of their available range, but were still able to withstand the effects of climate change into the 2070 - 2099 period, while serpentine endemics saw a slight increase in their projected range. The implications of this research can be used to inform the conservation of rare and endemic species as climate change continues to threaten biota in California.
