Date of Graduation

Spring 5-23-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in International and Development Economics (MSIDEC)

College/School

College of Arts and Sciences

Department/Program

Economics

First Advisor

Andrew Hobbs

Abstract

Food insecurity is worsening across Kenya's Arid and Semi-Arid Lands, where over three million people currently face acute hunger. Among pastoral communities in these regions, livestock are the central productive asset and primary food source. When herds deteriorate, households face falling milk production and the erosion of assets that would otherwise buffer consumption during difficult periods. This paper tests whether livestock body condition and rangeland forage quality predict household food coping behavior, and whether those relationships differ above and below a Micawber-style herd size threshold. Using a panel of 232 pastoralist households surveyed across five ASAL counties between 2021 and 2025, we estimate two-way fixed effects models with household-clustered standard errors. Poor body condition is most strongly associated with severe coping outcomes: adults and children going a full day without food. Poor forage quality predicts a broader range of adjustments, with stronger and more consistent effects for children. In the threshold analysis, above-threshold households show a stronger association between body condition and meal reduction than below-threshold households, the opposite of what consumption smoothing theory predicts. We argue that this may reflect the severity of the 2020 to 2023 drought, which could have overwhelmed the consumption buffering capacity of herd sizes in the observed range.

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