Date of Graduation

Spring 5-16-2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in International and Development Economics (MSIDEC)

College/School

College of Arts and Sciences

Department/Program

Economics

First Advisor

Andrew Hobbs

Abstract

This study investigates how climate-induced shocks to agricultural productivity affect school enrollment in rural Ethiopia. Using five waves of panel data from the Ethiopia Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and satellite-derived weather indicators, I estimate the causal effects of crop yields, specifically Teff, Sorghum, and Maize, on children’s school attendance. To address the endogeneity of agricultural output, I instrument crop yields with agro-climatic measures such as growing degree days (GDD), harmful degree days (HDD), and soil moisture during the Meher growing season. The main empirical strategy uses a two-stage instrumental variable approach with region and wave fixed effects. Results suggest that crop yields do influence school enrollment, though the effects are heterogeneous across crops and gender. Maize yields show no consistent relationship with schooling outcomes. In contrast, Teff and Sorghum yields have more promising effects, particularly for girls. The largest and most robust result appears for Sorghum yields and girls’ enrollment, a finding further supported by nonlinear regression plots. These large but imprecise coefficients may suggest the impacts are concentrated among the most vulnerable, credit-constrained households. While overall school enrollment rates are relatively high in the sample, these results highlight that agricultural shocks can still influence the schooling decisions of specific subgroups. The findings underscore the importance of designing policies that reduce the opportunity cost of schooling and protect human capital accumulation in the face of increasing climate variability.

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