Date of Graduation

Fall 5-18-2024

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Applied Economics (MSAE)

College/School

College of Arts and Sciences

Department/Program

Economics

First Advisor

Arman Khachiyan

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of load shedding, a recurring power outage phenomenon in South Africa, on crime rates in the densely populated Gauteng province. Using a novel dataset that combines Eskom's load shedding schedules with detailed crime statistics from 2015 to 2022, a fixed-effects regression model is employed to examine the relationship between blackout hours and various crime categories. Findings reveal that while load shedding does not significantly affect overall crime rates, it significantly increases the incidence of contact crimes and sexual offenses, particularly during daylight hours. Additionally, our results provide evidence that load shedding diminishes the ability of Police to detect crimes, whether through reducing effectivity or lowering levels of policing. This study contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of how load shedding influences specific crime types and by highlighting the differential impact of blackouts based on the time of day. The results could have important implications for policymakers and law enforcement agencies seeking to mitigate the adverse effects of load shedding on public safety in South Africa.

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