Date of Graduation
Spring 5-16-2019
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Master of Science in International and Development Economics (MSIDEC)
College/School
College of Arts and Sciences
Department/Program
Economics
First Advisor
Peter Lorentzen
Second Advisor
Michael Jonas
Abstract
Can the stock market be used to determine the political preferences of individual economic sectors? This paper explores the conceptual relationship between electoral outcomes and financial markets in Mexico. Specifically, it analyzes how financial markets predict the expected effects of a given political platform on the performance of firms within specific sectors. To do this, the study used event-study methodology to calculate abnormal returns on stock prices across the nine sectors listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores stock exchange following the historic election of leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), On July 1, 2018. However, despite the uncertainty generated by the business unfriendly and anti-establishment rhetoric of AMLO as a candidate, the study was unable to definitively ascribe political preferences to firms at the sectoral level. Despite the lack of support for this hypothesis, the results do provide interesting information that can provide the basis for further study.
Recommended Citation
Connors, Ian, "Financial Red Flags: Empirical Mapping of Firm Political Preferences by Sector in Mexico" (2019). Master's Theses. 1188.
https://repository.usfca.edu/thes/1188
dataset
Connors.Ian.SP2019.dofile.Mexico.do (16 kB)
stata dofile
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