Date of Award

Fall 2025

Degree Type

Honors Thesis

Major

Politics

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts

Department

Political Science

First Advisor

Brian Weiner

Abstract

As rising temperatures increase the rate of polar ice cap melt, the Arctic is rapidly becoming a region of significant geopolitical interest, creating the potential for a revived Great Powers struggle. A key consideration surrounding potential conflict for democracies is the role of official government secrecy in foreign policy decision-making. This particular study examines the intersection of the two topics, creating a model of understanding and predicting U.S. government deception in conflicts. Specifically, this research identifies the gap between internal U.S. government knowledge and publicly broadcasted messaging surrounding the justifications for military and covert action. By analyzing case studies of secrecy scandals from the Cold War and comparing theoretical schools of government deception, a comprehensive model of understanding can be extrapolated to future conflicts. I argue that Americans can expect the government to publicly communicate a defensive posture and concern for national security interests in the Arctic, while privately prioritizing the economic and hegemonic gains that dominance in the Arctic could produce.

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