Date of Graduation

Spring 5-23-2026

Document Access

Project/Capstone - Global access

Degree Name

Master of Science in Environmental Management (MSEM)

College/School

College of Arts and Sciences

Department/Program

Environmental Management

First Advisor

Allison Luengen

Abstract

Shipping activity across the Northwest Passage has increased by 46% since 2011 as climate forcing drives sea ice decline, but associated risks to vessels and the environment are underestimated and rarely examined together. A literature review conducted in this study indicated that by 2070, a 5-month navigation window will expose vessels to increasingly unpredictable hazards as the region transforms from an ice- to wave-dominated regime, with wave heights increasing by 10-13% per decade. Ice hazards persist, and vessels operating in early summer and late fall will be exposed to elevated ice accretion risk that can cause capsizing and marine fuel oil spill. To evaluate marine fuel oil spill consequences under these conditions, a risk assessment based on the EPA’s Ecological Risk Assessment framework was used. A four-stage consequence escalation framework was developed: containment failure, spill dispersion and transport dynamics, environmental persistence, and ecological exposure and recovery lag. Each stage included multiple mechanisms (e.g., remoteness, ice encapsulation, and suppressed photooxidation) ranked by their potential to amplify spill consequences. Of the 19 mechanisms evaluated, 12 were ranked high, 6 medium, and 1 low, indicating spill amplification is not driven by a single dominant process, but by multiple mechanisms acting in parallel. A policy analysis showed that Arctic shipping governance systems are fragmented, unevenly implemented, and poorly aligned with the physical and operational constraints of the region. These findings indicate that improving monitoring, response capacity, Arctic-specific governance, corridor design, and integrated data systems is critical to manage increasingly complex hazards and spill risks.

Download

Share

COinS