Date of Graduation
Spring 5-15-2025
Document Access
Project/Capstone - Global access
Degree Name
Master of Science in Applied Economics
College/School
College of Arts and Sciences
Department/Program
Applied Economics
First Advisor
Dr. Robizon Khubulashvil
Abstract
This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. A bidirectional mediation model confirms that Ekub and community trust reinforce one another, forming a resilient economic infrastructure rooted in shared obligation and interdependence. Interpreting these patterns through historical, behavioral, and cultural lenses, the study challenges individualistic assumptions in mainstream economic theory. To extend the practical value of these insights, I developed Raymoch.com, a digital platform that translates these models into a predictive tool and cultural archive. This research re-conceptualizes migrant resilience not as individual perseverance, but as a structured, inherited system of trust, discipline, and communal logic.
Recommended Citation
Russom, Elsa, "The Hidden Logic Behind Migration and Success" (2025). Master's Projects and Capstones. 1909.
https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone/1909
Included in
African Studies Commons, Behavioral Economics Commons, Econometrics Commons, Economic Theory Commons, Growth and Development Commons, Other Economics Commons, Risk Analysis Commons
Comments
This paper explores how informal cooperative systems like Ekub help migrants succeed despite barriers. It reveals hidden patterns of trust, strategy, and community resilience that are often overlooked in mainstream development models.