Date of Graduation
Spring 5-23-2026
Document Access
Project/Capstone - Global access
Degree Name
Master of Science in Energy Systems Management
College/School
College of Arts and Sciences
Department/Program
Energy Systems Management
First Advisor
Dr. Jim Williams
Second Advisor
Joshua Spooner
Third Advisor
Austin Krause
Abstract
This report presents a long-term resource plan for NorthWestern Energy (NWE) to meet future demand cost-effectively while evaluating decarbonization impacts on customer rates. Serving approximately 65,000 retail electric customers in eastern South Dakota, NWE operates a summer-peaking system (348 MW peak in 2024; $0.15/kWh average rate). With coal providing 51% of 2024 generation, NWE's carbon intensity (~584 kg CO₂/MWh) sits 55% above the national average. Amid planned coal retirements and rising demand, NWE faces an accredited capacity shortfall of ~452 MW by 2050.
The study evaluates four core questions:
- What is the least-cost portfolio to satisfy future demand?
- Can the utility maintain low rates while cutting CO₂ emissions by 85%?
- How does achieving net-zero by 2050 alter rates compared to a reference case?
- How would introducing nuclear generation by 2034 to serve data center demand affect customer costs?
Using a 2024–2050 modeling horizon, the analysis examines three core scenarios and one nuclear sensitivity starting from baseline load, existing assets, and a 15% planning reserve margin. Candidate resources include combined-cycle gas (CCGT), combustion turbines (CT), wind, solar, and battery storage. The Net Zero pathway also permits CCGT with carbon capture and hydrogen-retrofitted CTs. Financial assumptions incorporate NREL’s 2024 Annual Technology Baseline (6.81% WACC) and EIA fuel price forecasts for the SPP region.
Recommended Citation
Ali, Syed Shahid; Mrlik, John Sande; and Tiendrebeogo, Mauricia Karene, "An Integrated Resource Plan for NorthWestern Energy South Dakota - Pathways to 85% Clean Energy and Net Zero by 2050" (2026). Master's Projects and Capstones. 2092.
https://repository.usfca.edu/capstone/2092
Masters IRP Presentation
NWE-SD-BAU-Final-Transparent Graphs.xlsx (23823 kB)
Stack Model-Business As Usual BAU
NWE-SD-85% Clean-Final.xlsx (29973 kB)
Stack Model-85% Clean
NWE-SD-85% Clean Nuclear-Final.xlsx (30126 kB)
Stack Model-85% Clean with Nuclear as a resource
NWE-SD-Net Zero-Final-Transparent Graphs.xlsx (25650 kB)
Stack Model-Net Zero
NWE-SD-NetZero Nuclear-Final.xlsx (30187 kB)
Stack Model-Net Zero with Nuclear as a resource
Included in
Energy and Utilities Law Commons, Energy Policy Commons, Energy Systems Commons, Oil, Gas, and Energy Commons, Power and Energy Commons
